So if you've been following the news at all recently you may have heard that the Coronavirus has arrived in Japan. We don't have it as bad as China or South Korea yet but we are up there with Italy, Iran and Singapore in that list of countries where this is bad and likely to get a lot worse. We've had 175 domestic cases so far, including in my prefecture, in addition to about 800 on the Diamond Princess cruise ship.
The Prime Minister, apparently on a whim, announced last night that all schools across the country will close from Monday. So we had to break that to our son this morning. Normally he loves missing school, but this means that the school year (which ends in March) is suddenly and unexpectedly over and he has to say goodbye to his teacher and friends today, so it was kind of a bummer.
Another question this epidemic has raised is whether or not organized sporting events will continue and it seems like the 2020 baseball season, or at least part of it, is at risk. The NPB commissioner announced that all remaining pre-season games will be played before empty stadiums and he declined to confirm whether opening day, which happens in just 3 weeks, will go ahead as scheduled.
I am no medical expert but I don't really see any way, given how things have unfolded in China, that this is going to be resolved by the March 20 opener. The Prime Minister just closed all the schools in the country until after that date so likely we are at best looking at a shortened season ahead.
At worst? I don't know. Hopefully this thing doesn't get too bad and gets under control before they have to cancel the whole season but it could come to that. There is already a lot of talk about the possibility of cancelling the Olympics in July and if that happens I can't imagine the baseball season going ahead as planned.
Well, not that my concern over the baseball season is that big given that I don't want me or my family to get a deadly disease. But since this blog is about baseball, that is what I'm focusing on.
I'm a bit hopeful that the worst won't play out. They say these Coronaviruses don't do well in warm weather so hopefully when spring arrives it'll die down. But there is so much unknown that its really impossible to say at this point and I'm just keeping my fingers crossed (mostly that my family doesn't get this, but also that the baseball season goes ahead).
There's money to be made, so there's no way the Olympics are getting canned (for reference, remember how they went ahead with it in Brazil even though the Zika Virus was a thing back then). Though I've been against the Olympics since it was still a proposal since I consider to be a huge waste of taxpayer money that could've been used for something better like decent infrastructure outside of Tokyo.
ReplyDeleteI'm going to apply the same logic to baseball though, as in I'll believe in businesses giving up revenue when I see it.
Still though, I am cackling at how extremely Japanese Japan is acting in response. That's the motherland I know and love. Kinda sucks for everyone in the education workforce though because they're probably not getting paid (or you know, less than usual). Also a reminder that the flu is more deadlier than this Corona virus, so I hope you and your loved ones got your flu shots before all of this.
I also doubt that the Olympics will be cancelled since there is so much at stake, the Central government has so much invested in it (both financially and reputationally) that they'll push ahead with it unless things really get out of hand (which seems unlikely).
DeleteThe baseball season though has way less of that kind of leverage to prevent cancellation (same with soccer and sumo). The Prime Minister's personal reputation isn't going to be dinged by cancelling part of the NPB season like it will be for a once in a generation global event like the Olympics.
Also, the Olympics has a few months buffer period in which they might be able to resolve this. Baseball only has 3 weeks and there is no way they are going to get a handle on this thing in that short amount of time. They've already cancelled school for 12 million students across the country until April, which is about a million times more disruptive and costly than cancelling a bunch of baseball games is.
NPB is already giving up revenue since they've foregone the gate revenue from all the remaining pre-season games. And it won't really be up to NPB anyway, if the government tells them to shut games down, they'll have to comply.
Also, its a bit erroneous to say that the regular flu is deadlier than this. From what we know so far the fatality rate among those who get it is about 2%, which is orders of magnitude higher than for the regular flu. The regular flu has a higher death toll than what this has caused so far because millions of people get it each year. If this coronavirus spreads to millions like that, the death toll will be much much worse than any seasonal flu outbreaks. So I am hoping it doesn't come to that.
Yeah in retrospect I should've said the flu has ha a higher death rate on average (knowing full well there's a sample size difference). All the same, stay safe.
DeleteThanks, hope this doesn't reach the US!
DeleteAlso, just thinking about revenue, one possibility is that instead of cancelling the season they may push ahead with it, but just play each game before an empty stadium like they are with the pre season games. It'll be weird, but that way they can at least still get whatever TV revenue they get (paltry compared to MLB but still more than zero).
DeleteI'm not sure if that will be sustainable though if this goes on for a while.
Hope the Coronavirus clears up by the opening day. Hopefully, if opening day is cancelled, the whole season won't be cancelled. Here in America I've been really looking forward to the baseball season, so I can definitely imagine how I'd feel if the baseball season in america was cancelled.
ReplyDeleteYeah, me too! I think its unlikely though at least in Japan. Hope the same conversation isn't going to be had with regard to MLB!
DeleteSumo is at risk as well. There is talk about performing in an empty arena as well.
ReplyDeleteYeah, the March tournament might just be done in front of empty seats, which will be really depressing. I don't see much way around it at this point though.
DeleteSorry to hear about the school year coming to an abrupt end. When does it normally get out? I was kinda wondering what we're going to do here in the states if things get out of hand. My friends and I were talking about it at lunch. If they shut down our district, they'd most likely have the students make up the time at the end of the school year.
ReplyDeleteAs for baseball and sports... it's crazy that they're starting to play in front of empty seat... and considering cancelling the Olympics. But I totally get it. They have to get the virus under control.
School year here ends in March, new year begins in April.
DeleteHope it doesn't get this bad there!
Here in the Bay Area, people are stocking up on the necessities. My friend said she went to a few grocery stores and all of the bottled water was sold out. Toilet paper and Clorox wipes too. Even rice at the Japanese grocery stores were all sold out.
DeletePeople are doing that here too. There has been a run on toilet paper at the stores which is annoying. The same thing happened 9 years ago after the Tohoku tsunami.
DeleteActually here in Nagoya the most alarming news for me was that someone infected took the subway that I use to commute to work last week. I've switched to riding a bike to work since then!
Wow. I hope the person didn't know they were infected. If they did and still chose to take the subway... well... that's just wrong on so many levels.
DeleteThe person didn't know at the time, later after they were diagnosed they traced his travel and mentioned he had been on the subway!
DeleteBaseball isn't that important, keeping you and yours safe is!
ReplyDeleteThanks! We're al safe so far and I intend to keep it that way!
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