Here is an interesting piece of baseball trivia. In 1977 Sadaharu Oh
hit his 756th career home run in NPB, surpassing Hank Aaron`s recently
set MLB record of 755. Aaron was
gracious enough to send this message to Oh to mark the occasion:
I would have loved to have been there
tonight to put a crown on top of his head because he is quite a gentleman and
the people of Japan have a lot to be proud of...I want to wish (Oh) the best
luck in the world. I know he's capable of hitting a lot
more home runs." (source)
Oh and Aaron became friends after that and
together have played a pretty big, and positive, role in promoting baseball
ties between their respective countries.
This week, in contrast, Ichiro Suzuki surpassed
Pete Rose`s career MLB hit total with his 4257th career hit across
both MLB and NPB combined. Rose`s gracious message to Ichiro to mark the
occasion (sent indirectly through the media):
Despite having done nothing wrong, Rose`s
lack of diplomacy has forced Ichiro into adopting an almost apologetic tone
when discussing his accomplishment.
Instead of being allowed to celebrate he is evidently being made to felt
shame for his mark.
Rose`s response is unfortunate for two
reasons. First and foremost it displays
a shocking lack of class and dignity. He
even manages to denigrate poor old Tuffy Rhodes, who has absolutely nothing to
do with Ichiro`s record. What did Tuffy
ever do to Rose to deserve that?
Regardless of what he really thinks, it would have cost nothing to Rose
to have simply wished Ichiro the best and then shut up about it. But Rose being Rose, he had to dump all over
what should have been Ichiro`s day in the sun.
More importantly though, judging from what
I am reading across the internet Rose`s comments have unfortunately framed the
debate on how Ichiro`s accomplishment should be viewed. This is unfortunate not only because it was
rude, but because he frames the debate in a way that deliberately prevents any
sort of rational discussion about what Ichiro has done and instead focuses it
on largely irrelevant observations which have nothing to do with Ichiro.
Before I get into discussing the substance
of what Pete Rose, and a lot of writers, are saying, I`d like to return to the
Hank Aaron and Sadaharu Oh story because it offers some interesting insights on
what a comparative debate about records achieved in NPB and MLB should look
like. To start with the basic facts, Oh
hit 868 home runs to Aaron`s 755 (and Bonds` 762, I focus on Aaron because most
of the debate played out when he was the home run champ still and not as an
intentional slight to Bonds). People in
the Oh camp who think he should be considered the `king` (ironically, that is
what Oh means in Japanese) point to the simple math (868 is more than 755), to
the fact that Oh played in shorter seasons than Aaron, and that relative to his
nearest NPB rival (Katsuya Nomura who is over 200 home runs behind) Oh`s record
is a unique accomplishment. Aaron
supporters on the other hand can point to the fact that playing in NPB gave Oh
some advantages that he wouldn`t have had in MLB – playing in stadiums with
smaller configurations and using a compressed bat – which strongly suggest that
if he had played in MLB like Aaron he would not have hit so many home runs.
Off the bat it is important to note that
these arguments are generally made by supporters of Oh and Aaron rather than by
the principals themselves – to my knowledge unlike Pete Rose neither one has
ever publicly said anything disparaging about the other`s accomplishments. So
good for them on that. More importantly
though, the talking points in that debate all focus logically on the individual
accomplishments achieved by each. While
they implicitly involve a comparison of NPB and MLB, the points of comparison
are connected to what each actually did (such as the fact that NPB`s smaller
stadiums meant that some balls Oh hit for home runs there likely would have
just been long outs in more spacious MLB parks).
In other words there is a pretty logical
framework in that debate which actually seeks to give the accomplishments of
each player (particularly Oh since he is effectively viewed as the `challenger`
to the previously crowned king) a due hearing.
The debate on Ichiro in the US, on the other hand, has made any similar
inquiry largely impossible because of the way Rose has framed it.
Rose raises two points to disparage
Ichiro`s mark. The first is that because
NPB is of lower caliber to MLB, his hits there simply shouldn`t count. I call this the Tuffy Rhodes defence, his argument basically being that any league in which Tuffy (and others like him) can become a star in must not be worth even considering based solely on the fact that Tuffy didn`t put up impressive numbers in his MLB career.
First off, to my knowledge nobody seriously
uses the same line of reasoning when advocating Aaron`s case against Oh. They cite specific reasons why some of Oh`s
home runs wouldn`t have happened in the US and maybe suggest he could have hit
500 if he played in the US but nowhere near 868 (or 755). What they don`t say is
that his career home run total should be considered zero, which is essentially
the stance Rose is taking with Ichiro.
More problematic though is the fact that Ichiro has a much stronger case
than Oh based on all the evidence we have of his career. In Oh`s case the assumption is that he would
have hit fewer home runs in MLB, which is probably true. In Ichiro`s case though the evidence we have
suggests the opposite – he would probably have had more career hits had he
played his NPB years in the US instead.
In all his years in NPB he only had more than 200 hits once. In the first ten seasons of his career after
coming to the US, he never had less than 200 hits. This is attributable to the shorter season in
NPB rather than any weakness in Ichiro as a player when he was in Japan.
Moreover, nobody has suggested a specific way in
which NPB`s lower quality to MLB would have given his hit totals an unfair
boost. Smaller ballparks wouldn`t help
Ichiro the way they help a power hitter like Rhodes or Oh, and he didn`t use
compressed bats either. A slightly lower
quality of pitching he would have faced is about the only possible theory you
might come up with, but if that had been relevant we would have seen his
performance decline when he switched to facing higher caliber pitching in the
US, which didn`t happen. My view is that
the pitching in NPB at the time (before most of the stars had jumped ship to
MLB) was probably only slightly lower than MLB and not different enough to have
given Ichiro`s performance an unnatural boost in terms of accumulating hits (at
least not enough to overcome the handicap of playing fewer games).
The second argument Rose uses is that his
minor league totals should be counted too, which means Ichiro still has a way
to go. This is just arbitrary goal post
moving on Rose`s part, but if we take it as valid then there are two
responses. The first is that Rose`s time
in the minor leagues was time he spent being considered not good enough to play
in the majors. Ichiro`s time in NPB on
the other hand was time he spent at the highest level of professional baseball
he was able to play in under the rules in force at the time. So the two are qualitatively different (not
to mention the fact that Rose`s hits came at A level or less, which is commonly
agreed to be much inferior to the level of NPB). The second response is that Ichiro`s NPB
totals don`t include his own time in the Japanese minor leagues with Orix` 2
Gun team, where he spent most of his first two seasons. So if you are going to
add Rose`s minor league totals it is only fair to add Ichiro`s. Doing so he still comes up a bit short of
Rose`s minor/major league total, but within reach. If he does cross that line, expect Rose to
quietly drop reference to his minor league hit totals and revert to the Tuffy Rhodes
defence, which for reasons I`ve outlined above is without merit.
Conclusion
To my mind, its fair to say that Pete Rose
still has the MLB record while Ichiro has a new, previously unrecognized record
of combined MLB and NPB hits. People can
have legitimate debates about which accomplishment they view as more
significant, but to accept Rose`s argument that we can just dismiss Ichiro`s
record out of hand simply because NPB is of lower quality to MLB is grossly
unfair and, more importantly, probably leads to the wrong conclusion.
Part of the reason Rose has been able to
control the debate is the sheer lack of knowledge on the part of American
sportswriters about the Japanese game. The
argument that it’s a lower league and therefore shouldn`t be counted provides
an easy out for them that avoids the need to actually sort through the evidence
and try to figure out how to evaluate it.
Its telling that experts on Japanese baseball aren`t part of roundtable
discussions like this one, which essentially involves a bunch of people who are
only familiar with MLB deciding that only MLB hits should count. Surprise surprise. I`m not entirely certain myself which record
is more impressive, but I am convinced that the way the debate is unfolding is
extremely biased against Ichiro in ways that have no rational backing but which
overwhelmingly give Pete Rose the benefit of the doubt. What a long way debate has come from the days
of comparing Aaron and Oh…..
Great post and great points! It's going to be one of those debates where everyone is going to have to agree to disagree. I consider Ichiro the hit king for my own reasons. I understand why people still consider Rose the hit King too. Would love to see Ichiro stay in long enough to surpass Rose and end the debate. Thanks again for posting, hoping you can post more as I always enjoy your topics!
ReplyDeleteThanks for the kind comment! Yeah, I also think this should be one of the big debates that nobody agrees on, but I find it kind of sad that its actually shaping up to be one of those debates that everyone (well, in the US anyway) does agree on simply because they dismiss Ichiro`s NPB stats out of hand.
DeleteIt would be awesome for Ichiro to surpass Rose in MLB hits, I guess he would have to play until he turns 50 to have a shot at that, which I suppose isn`t out of the question (if highly unlikely) given his performance this year. He might do a Rickey Henderson/Julio Franco/Jamie Moyer thing!
Cal Ripken was also as classy as Aaron was when Tomoaki Kanemoto broke his consecutive inning streak in 2006.
ReplyDeleteGood call on the Ripken/Kanemoto situation! Though the roles were reversed, I do recall Ripken acting with class when he surpassed Sachio Kinugasa`s consecutive game record too.
DeletePete Rose really is the outlier here, I guess I just chalk it up to the insecurity he must feel as a total outsider/exile from the baseball world, which removes any professional incentives to be polite he otherwise would have had.